Turkey: Political Panorama in the 2016 April

Turkey had 9 politic periods since 1923 after founding republic:

3 men: Ataturk (1923-1938), Inonu (1938-1950), Bayar (1950-1960).

3 military coup d’etat’s: 1960, 1971, 1980.

3 neo-liberalist waves: Ozal 1983, Ciller 1993, Erdogan 2003.

They were all neo-con’s. They were both nationalists and Muslims but not democrats. They had tendencies to both fascism and inqiusition.

For example: If you had not finished your compulsory military service or if you are an atheist, you are in the danger in Turkey. Penalty for the first one is to go to prison for may be 3 years. Second for the second one may be death by lynch.

Erdogan was celebrated by the West or G-7 or USA or EU when he was elected. But election of him was illegal and still is.

He seemed successful in his first years like other politicians. But then 2007-2008 Crisis had come. All world economy had been going down since that time. Erdogan’s cabinets and Turkish economy too.

So he got to behave hard like other politicians. He left liberalism. He left religion. He went to nationalism. A real one. A pure one.

About 10 thousands of people / soldiers / guerillas were killed since July 1st, 2015. 50 to 100 thousands of people had been killed from 1983 to 2010 in civil war in Turkey. So it seems that bigger causalties will come in the near future. Twice or triple for any unit time.

Arab spring was a fake discourse. Many thousands of deaths and many millions of immigrations occcured. Only for sending  petroleum money to G-7.

Erdogan firstly was near Esed / Syria. And then he was against him too much. He likes to exaggerate.

He preferred 4 war fronts aganist ISIL and PKK: Mousul, Kobane, big cities and the Southeast Anatolia. Both conventional and unconventional war. Both by the army and the guerillas. So it is a fractal war. Sum of the serial will be calculated in the long time.

May he / AKP win?

May be with 10-50 % possibility. The result depends on other parametres:

China, Russia-Putin, USA-new president, inner chaos of in the EU. Not Arabs and not Muslims. Then don’t care for the deaths of their coreligionists.

Erdogan has time till 2019. There will be 3 elections in that year: General, local, and the presidency. He tries / will try to change the political system till that time.

So conditions are fuzzy. A little bit chaotic. There may be no certain estimations.

As an antinationalist and atheist, ı may say certainly that he is with us / Turkey till 2019 accept his death because of his risky health condition.

So we wait for Godot in the cloudy weather.

(April 20th, 2016)