REBELS in TURKEY

There were 21 rebels between 1920-1922 during Freedom War.

There were 3 rebels by Kurds respectively in 1925 Sheikh Said, 1930 Agri, 1937 Dersim.

There was a rebel by marxists between 1965-1980.

There was a rebel by fascists between 1975-1980.

There was a rebel by fundamentalists between 1995-2005.

All were failed.

There are 30,000 marxist exiles in Europe.

3 parties of fundamentalists were dismissed by Constitution Court. 1 by 1980 coup d'etat.

1 party of fascists was dismissed by 1980 coup d'etat.

There has been a low concentration civil war between PKK and TR since 1983. They are seperatists.

There are 20 (of 72) millions hungry people in 2006. They don't rebel.

BASIC ECONOMICAL MISTAKES in TURKEY

Consumption is always higher than production.
There is not enough investment.
Bank interruptions costed $ 24 billions to the state.
Turkish investors had lost $ 25 billions in stock exchange.
There is no patent or trademark from Turkey. Even yoghurt is produced with foreign patent.
Imports are always higher than exports.
There is not enough investment in school and working education.

UNEMPLOYMENT in TURKEY

There are 72 millions people in Turkey in 2006. Only 23 millions of population are accepted as productive power.

There is officially 10 %, unofficially 20 % unemployment in Turkey.

4 main reasons for it:

Rural population was 30 % in 2005 and 50 % in 1970. Agriculture people is the basic reason creating unemployment.

Educaton level is very low as primary school graduate. There is not enough skilled people.

Population increase is higher than G-7.

Employment for 1 person costs $ 100,000. So there is not enough investment.

INCOME DISTRIBUTION in TURKEY

20 % 1994 2002
slices
I 4.9 5.3
II 8.6 9.8
III 12.6 14.0
IV 19.0 20.8
V 54.9 50.1

IMPORT DEPENDENCE in THE MAIN INDUSTRIES in TURKEY

http://www.sabah.com.tr/2006/07/29/eko122.html#

Electronic devices 64.7
Rubber and plastics 53.9
Main metals 50.4
Chemical 46.9
Transportation 46.8
Leather 45.9
Machine 36.1
Paper 34.0
Textile 27.0
Timber 24.7
Furniture 22.8
Food 18.5
Except metals 08.5

Average 36.1

POLITICAL THOUGHTS in TURKEY in 2006

http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/pazar/4912156.asp?gid=59

Number %

Nationalist 315 27.5
Social democrat 168 14.7
Conservative 91 7.9
Muslim democrat 85 7.4
Laicist 80 7.0
Kemalist 75 6.5
Nationalist conservative 45 3.9
Socialist 31 2.7
Extreme nationalist 29 2.5
Liberal 21 1.8
Left nationalist 19 1.7
Fundamentalist 18 1.6
Communist 7 0.6
Others 5 0.4
No political thought 348 30.4

Total 1,337 116.7

Note: A person can select more than one, so total may be more than 100%.

MATHEMATICAL MODELS for HISTORY and POLITICS

LINEAR PROGRAMMING:

Linear programming has lines and corners (ro’s).

Lines are constraint. They are also cause-effect series.

Corners give critical values. One of them give the solution.

POSSIBLE TITLES

Turkey and War
Turkey and EU
Turkey and USA
Turkey and Islam
Turkey and the Middle East
Turkey and the Balkans
Turkey and Caucaisia
Turkey and Lebanon
Turkish Power Elites
Turkish Compradors
Turkish Proleteriat
Mass as Economic Power
Mass as Deviants
Actual / popular / daily titles

TURKISH POWER ELITES

Power elites have 5 subclasses: Businessmen, politicians, mediators, military men, and intellectuals.

Businessmen roughly equals dollar millionaires. They have organizations such as Turkish Businessman Assciation, Turkish Young Businessmen Association, Turkish Independent Businessmen Associtaion, Istanbul Commerce Chamber, Istanbul Industry Chamber, Turkish Chambers Association, etc.

Politicians are deputies, ex-deputies, mayors, parties' city presidents, etc.

Mediators are owners, journalists, chroniclers, famous people (singers, top models), etc.

Military men are the ones ranked as colonel / captain and the higher ranked ones.

Intellectuals are academicians, writers, artists, etc. Intelegentsia prefer to be close to the state, not against it.

TURKISH COMPRADORS

When we say rich we mean dollar millionaires in Turkey. If you have 1 million dollars, you can live as a rentier. You have a house costed 250,000 dollars. You have a car costed 50,000 dollars. You may go to foreign countries for vacation. You speculate in stock exchange. Etc.
There are about 75,000 dollar millionaires in Turkey.
There are officially 21 dollar billionaires in Turkey. Unofficially more:
10 dollar billionaires made their money vaporized (totally 24 billion dollars).
There are 5 families or 5-10 (father-son or brother-brother) dollar billionaires as drug lords.
There are 2-5 dollar billionaires earning money in the foreign countries.

In Turkey 1 % of population takes 20 % of GNP.

TURKISH PROLETERIAT

Turkey has 72 millions population.
Turkey has still 30 % rural population, so There are still mujiks beside working class.
50 % of villagers have no land. They are agricultural workers.
4 millions of workers are socially insured, 4 millions of workers are socially uninsured.
There are 4 millions of apprentice aged between 11-18.
There are 3 millions of street vendors, but they mostly go unemployment because of state’s prohibitions.
There are 2.5 millions workers earning minimum wage ($ 250).
So we can say that there are 25 millions of proleteriat.
There 900.000 peoples living on hunger limit.
There 20 millions people living on poverty limit.
So why no revolution?
Because of 4 coup d’etats. Everybody fears.
Because of 3 liberalisms. Everybody wants to jump to upper classes.
Because of laws. Working class has not much rights.

WAR : 1

Turkish Republic had lived no war indeed.

In 1950 700 Turkish soldiers died in Korean War.

In 1974 there was Cyprus problem. 500 soldiers died.

There was a low concentration civil war between 1983-1999. 35,000 civils and soldiers died.

There are many wars around Turkey.

Between Russia and Chechenistan.

Between Georgia and Abhazia.

Civil war in Iraq.

Between Israil and Lebanon.

There will be more.

Trotchky said that you may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.

War is interested in Turkey very closely.

LIBERALISM PLUS FASCISM: 2013-2023

There was Krupp beyond Hitler.

Turkish dollar billionaires liked militarist coup d’etats because real wages went down.

But there was no Krupp sized capitalist in Turkey. But there is now. There are more than one. 10-30.

These new Krupp type capitalists will enforce nationalism.

Turkey had always war risk. But now it limits to 100 %.

War brings economic growth. One holding produces war ships, another one produces tanks now.

There is a little civil war since 1983. Kurds want a seperate state. There is one in the Northern Iraq, but Turkey Kurds don’t want to unite with this one.

So nationalism goes up. Everyday young people die. People has begun to hate civil Kurds.

So 4th liberalism and fascism will dictate together between 2013-2023.

3 LIBERALISMS: 1983-2013

3 (so called) liberal parties won the elections in 1983, 1993, and 2002 (leader changed in 2003).

Turkey had an isolated economy. It was a mixture. Mostly state protection of domestic producers and import substitution.

Turkey was wanted to be integrated into the global market like other underdeveloped or developing countries.

3 liberalism was the result of this forcing.

Rural population decreased from 45 % to 30 % of total population.

Industrialization had begun in 1960s, but realized in these 3 periods.

Foreign trade became 50 billion dollars per years. 70 % of it manufacture goods, but total exports was less than 50 billion dollars, ie montage industry was the real situation.

Total public debt became 325 billion dollars.

Unemployment became 20 %.

So this is the eral panorama of liberalisms. In Turkey too.

3+1 COUP D’ETATS: 1960-1980/1997

All coup d’etats was military.

In the 1960s the world and Turkey lived 1968 winds.

1971 tried to kill this wind.

It was not enough and 1980 coup d’etats came.

1 million people were tortured after 1971 and 1980 coup d’etats.

1997 coup d’etats was a post-modern one. It was to prevent a fundemantalist party. But there were no total pressure.

3 MEN in the BEGINNING: 1923-1960

Turkish Republic was founded in 1923.

There was Ataturk from 1923 till 1938.

There was Inonu from 1938 till 1950.

There was Bayar from 1950 till 1960.

Ataturk made Turkey a nation state. But he couldn’t complete his revolutions.

Inonu made Turkey outside WW2. But no economic growth in 12 years.

Bayar tried the first proto-liberalism by the aid of USA.

And then coup d’etats came. In the first one in 1960 the prime minister was punished by death.

GEOGRAPHY

Turkey is between Europe and Asia and North and South. It also places in the Balkans, the Caucasia, the Middle East which are war regions.

It has coast of thousands kilometres, but there is no place of sea in the daily life.

Climate is moderate.

Forestry is less than 25 % of land.

Agricultural area is less than 25 %.

Settled are is about 25 %.

And 25 % of total area has no function.

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Geography
History
3 Men in the Beginning: 1923-1960
3+1 Coup d’Etats: 1960-1980/1997
3 Liberalisms: 1983-2013
Liberalism Plus Fascism: 2013-2023
Economy
Tourism
Industry
Agriculture
Energy
Demography
Religion
Culture
Education
Health
Law
Domestic Politics
International Politics